CLEVELAND (Interstat) — The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, tied atop the American League Central with identical 85-72 records, meet Thursday at Progressive Field in the rubber match of a critical three-game series with the division title on the line.

Rain is in the forecast for the 6:40 p.m. EDT first pitch, adding another layer of drama to a matchup that has been dominated by the Guardians. Cleveland has won five of the last six meetings between the clubs, including a 3-1 victory on Wednesday and a 5-2 win on Tuesday.

The Tigers will turn to left-hander Parker Messick (3-0), who looks to remain unbeaten and snap his team’s recent skid. Detroit has lost four straight and seven of its last 10 games. Messick will face a Guardians squad that has won eight of its last 10 and is riding strong starting pitching.

In Tuesday’s contest, Cleveland starter Gavin Williams struck out 12 over six innings, and the bullpen combination of Cade Smith and Erik Sabrowski each recorded two strikeouts in a scoreless inning of relief. The Tigers’ lone bright spot was Riley Greene, who homered in the loss.

Projections favor the Guardians to complete the series sweep. Interstat’s game simulator predicts a 7-1 Cleveland victory, while its ELO system gives the Guardians a 55.2% probability to win.

Following Thursday’s finale, both teams embark on their final series of the regular season. The Tigers travel to face the Boston Red Sox, while the Guardians host the Texas Rangers.