SERIE D PREVIEW: LIGORNA vs. NOVA ROMENTIN

GENOA, Italy (Interstat) — Ligorna hosts Nova Romentin on Sunday, May 3, in a Serie D clash that the league’s statistical models project as a lopsided affair. Interstat’s game simulator predicts a 4-1 home victory, while its ELO system gives Ligorna a 94.00 percent probability to win.

Nova Romentin (no record available) arrives in poor form. The visitors were drubbed 5-0 at home by Vado on April 26, their most recent result. In the previous nine matches, Nova Romentin has one win: 2-0 at Celle Varazze on March 1. The other eight outings yielded seven losses and one draw. The losing margins include a 6-1 defeat at Club Milano on April 19, 5-2 at Sestri Levante on April 2, and 3-0 at Derthona on March 28. Nova Romentin managed only two clean sheets during that stretch, both away draws (0-0 at Cairese 1919 on Feb. 8, and a scoreless tie at Ligorna on Dec. 21 in the teams’ last head-to-head).

Ligorna (no record available) has been more consistent. The home side drew 1-1 at Asti on April 26. Over the previous 10 matches, Ligorna has five wins, four draws and one loss — a 1-0 defeat at Valenzana on March 29. Ligorna’s defense has been stingy: four clean sheets in the last five games. The attack produced five goals in a 5-1 home win over Club Milano on Feb. 22, and a 3-1 victory at Varese on Feb. 15. Ligorna also earned a scoreless draw at Chisola Calcio on April 12.

Sunday’s match kicks off a late-season stretch for both sides in Italy’s fourth-tier league. Nova Romentin will need to reverse its recent trend of conceding heavily to keep pace with a Ligorna team that has shown defensive discipline and occasional offensive firepower.

The Dec. 21 meeting ended 0-0, but Nova Romentin’s recent road form (six losses in eight away games in the provided data) suggests that result will be difficult to replicate.