NAIROBI, Kenya (Interstat) — Kabati Youth FC hosts Nzoia Sugar FC on Sunday in a Kenyan Super League matchup that pits two clubs desperate to reverse recent slides.

Kickoff is scheduled for Sunday, May 3, 2026, at Kabati’s home ground. Nzoia Sugar enters with a 52.20 percent win probability, according to the Interstat ELO system, which projects a 1-0 victory for the visitors.

Both teams fell 0-3 on the road in their most recent outings April 26 — Kabati Youth at 3K FC and Nzoia Sugar at Migori Youth. That symmetry extends to their last head-to-head meeting Dec. 12, 2025, a scoreless draw at Nzoia.

Nzoia Sugar owns a mixed recent ledger. After the 4-0 thrashing of Vihiga United on Feb. 20, the side has gone 3-2-3 in its last eight, including a 2-0 win over Darajani Gogo FC on April 19 and a 1-0 victory at Soy United on April 12. However, the team also suffered a 2-0 loss to Michael Olunga FA on April 4 and a 3-1 defeat to 3K FC on March 29.

Kabati Youth’s form is more dire. The club has lost eight of its last 10 matches, with the lone wins coming against Kampong Speu Province (1-0 on April 3) and Mwatate United (2-0 on Feb. 22). That stretch includes a 9-0 thrashing by Fortune Sacco on March 7 and three consecutive losses by multiple goals entering Sunday.

Both sides occupy the lower half of the Super League table. Nzoia Sugar’s upcoming schedule features Naivas FC at home on May 10, while Kabati Youth faces Talanta on the same day — a set of fixtures that could shape their survival hopes.

Interstat’s game simulator favors Nzoia Sugar in a tight, low-scoring affair. The visitors’ slight edge in recent results and the ELO projection suggest a narrow result, but Kabati Youth’s home advantage and the scoreless draw in December indicate nothing is guaranteed.