LIÈGE, Belgium (Interstat) — In a stunning opening day upset, visiting Westerlo defied overwhelming odds to defeat Standard Liege 2-1 in a Belgian First Division A match Saturday at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.

The result flipped pregame projections on their head. Statistical models heavily favored the home side, with Interstat’s ELO system giving Standard Liege an 87.30 percent probability to win and its game simulator predicting a 3-1 victory for Les Rouges. Instead, it was Westerlo who emerged with a hard-fought victory to start their league campaign perfectly, while handing Standard Liege a defeat in their season opener.

The match began in disastrous fashion for the hosts. In just the 10th minute, Standard Liege’s Nacho Ferri, entering the game as a substitute, scored an own goal to give Westerlo an unexpected early lead. The own goal set a defensive tone for Standard Liege that would last the entire afternoon.

Westerlo carried that 1-0 advantage through a tense and increasingly physical first half. The match’s first yellow card was shown to Westerlo’s Amando Lapage in the 38th minute. The physicality escalated after halftime, with Westerlo defender Henry Lawrence booked in the 57th minute.

The game’s major turning point arrived in the 65th minute when Standard Liege’s Josué Homawoo was shown a red card, forcing the home side to play a man down for the final 25 minutes. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Standard Liege found an equalizer in the 76th minute. Forward Timothée Nkada provided a moment of hope for the home supporters, scoring to level the match at 1-1 with an assist from Adnane Abid.

Parity was short-lived. Westerlo reclaimed the lead for good just nine minutes later. In the 85th minute, substitute Dago Ourega scored the match-winner for the visitors, completing a comeback after Standard’s brief resurgence. The goal was assisted by another substitute, Fernand Gouré.

The final minutes were marred by further discipline issues. Westerlo’s Adnane Abid received a yellow card in the 82nd minute, followed by a booking for teammate Bernard Nguene in the 89th. Gouré was also cautioned in the third minute of second-half stoppage time. Standard Liege’s Ferri, whose early own goal proved so costly, was credited with an assist on Nkada’s goal, a small consolation in a difficult outing.

The victory immediately alters the early trajectory of both clubs’ seasons. Westerlo begins its First Division A schedule with one win and no losses, a perfect start across all competitions this season. For Standard Liege, the defeat marks a disappointing start, leaving them with a record of zero wins and one loss both in the league and overall this campaign.

The match underscored the unpredictable nature of football, where statistical models and home-field advantage are no guarantee of success. Westerlo’s resilience, capitalizing on an early gift and a key red card before finding a late winner, secured three valuable points on the road against a favored opponent.