ISTANBUL (Interstat) — Visiting Kocaelispor secured a 1-1 draw against favored Galatasaray in a Süper Lig match Sunday at RAMS Park, defying overwhelming projections.

Galatasaray, which had a 95.4% win probability according to Interstat’s ELO system, opened the scoring in the 30th minute through Leroy Sané. The heavily favored home side could not protect the lead, however, as Kocaelispor substitute Bruno Petković leveled the match in the 72nd minute. Petković’s goal was assisted by fellow substitute Joseph Nonge, who received a yellow card in the 23rd minute.

The result leaves both clubs with an identical record of zero wins, zero losses and one draw to open their domestic campaigns. The draw fell well short of the simulator’s projected 2-1 victory for Galatasaray.