BOLOGNA, Italy (Interstat) — A crucial Europa League quarterfinal first leg pits Italian surprise package Bologna FC 1909 against England’s Aston Villa on Thursday, a rematch of their group stage encounter from this season.

The stakes are markedly higher this time at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara. Bologna, sitting third in Serie A and unbeaten in European competition at home this campaign, hosts a Villa side navigating a congested Premier League schedule and seeking European glory.

The lone previous meeting favors the visitors. Aston Villa earned a 1-0 victory at Villa Park on Sept. 25 in the group stage. Bologna will be eager to avenge that result and leverage its formidable home form, which includes a 4-1 rout of FC Red Bull Salzburg and a 3-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv in this tournament.

Form presents a contrasting picture. Bologna enters with momentum, having held AS Roma to a 1-1 draw in its last match and losing just once in its last 10 across all competitions. Manager Thiago Motta has built a disciplined and ambitious side.

Aston Villa’s recent league results have been inconsistent. While they arrive off a 2-0 home win over West Ham United on March 22, that victory was preceded by a 3-1 loss at Manchester United and a 4-1 defeat at Chelsea in early March. Their European form has been stronger, including a 1-0 win at Lille in the previous round and a dramatic 3-2 comeback at FC Red Bull Salzburg in the knockout round play-offs.

Villa manager Unai Emery, a four-time Europa League winner, faces a brutal fixture pile-up. This match kicks off a staggering run of three games in four days, with Premier League matches at Newcastle United and against Everton slated for April 11 and 12, respectively.

According to Interstat’s game simulator, Bologna is projected to edge this first leg with a 2-1 victory.

The match will test Villa’s squad depth and Bologna’s ability to translate domestic success onto the European knockout stage. With a place in the semifinals on the line, the Italian hosts aim to secure an advantage before the return leg in Birmingham next week.