PADOVA, Italy (Interstat) — Alessandro Seghetti’s 80th-minute strike gave Padova a 1-0 victory over Reggiana in a Serie B match Sunday at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.

The lone goal defied a pregame projection from Interstat, whose simulator had forecast a 1-1 draw. The firm’s ELO system, however, gave Padova a 76% win probability.

Seghetti provided the decisive finish, converting after substitutes Simone Bonetti and Tobías Reinhart, both of whom received yellow cards earlier, combined to assist the late winner. The result gives Padova a winning start to its league campaign, while Reggiana begins with a loss.