RADÈS, Tunisia (March 15, 2026) (Interstat) — ES Tunis earned a 1-0 victory over El Ahly SC in a CAF Champions League group stage match Sunday at Stade Hammadi Agrebi, defying pregame forecasts.

The lone goal, assisted by substitute Mohamed Hany, secured the home win for Tunis. El Ahly, heavily favored by statistical models, failed to score. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-0 win for El Ahly, which was given a 50.4% probability to win by the same service’s ELO rating system.

The physical match featured five yellow cards, with El Ahly’s Jack Diarra receiving the first booking in the 15th minute. The result gives ES Tunis a winning start in the competition, while El Ahly searches for its first Champions League victory this season.