GENK, Belgium (Interstat) — KRC Gent defeated SC Freiburg 1-0 in Europa League play Thursday at Cegeka Arena, defying a pregame projection that favored the German side.

Defender Zakaria El Ouahdi scored the decisive goal in the 24th minute, assisted by substitute Ifechukwu Ogbus. El Ouahdi later received a yellow card in the 74th, as did Ogbus in the 80th.

The result gives Gent a winning start in the competition, while Freiburg begins with a loss. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-0 Freiburg victory, and its ELO system gave Gent a 75.3% probability to win.