MONASTIR, Tunisia (Interstat) — Emmanuel Ogbole’s 87th-minute goal delivered a 1-0 victory for CS Sfaxien over Monastir in a Tunisian Ligue 1 match Saturday at Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet.

The late strike decided a contest that statistical models heavily favored the home side to win. The result extends CS Sfaxien’s strong league form, improving its record to 12 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses. Monastir, which had been projected with a 72.8% win probability, falls to 8 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in the domestic competition. The teams played to a scoreless draw in their previous meeting last October.