CAGLIARI, Italy (Interstat) — In a dramatic opening match of the Serie A season that defied statistical projections, visiting Como secured a 2-1 victory over Cagliari on Saturday, March 7, 2026, at Unipol Domus. The match was decided by a late goal from a substitute, overturning a pregame forecast that heavily favored Como and a projected simulation that had pointed to a draw.

The visitors, despite being tipped by advanced metrics as overwhelming favorites, found themselves in an early hole. Against the run of play, Cagliari substitute Martin Baturina opened the scoring in the 14th minute, capitalizing on a defensive lapse to give the home side a surprising lead. Baturina, introduced early due to an injury, made an immediate impact and sent the Sardinian crowd into a frenzy.

Como, carrying an 89.2% win probability according to Interstat’s ELO system prior to kickoff, struggled to break down a resolute Cagliari defense for much of the first half and the early stages of the second. The turning point arrived just before the hour mark. Forward Sebastiano Esposito, Como’s most dangerous attacker throughout the contest, leveled the score at 1-1 in the 56th minute. He finished a well-worked team move to finally convert Como’s possession and pressure into a tangible result.

The game grew increasingly tense and physical following the equalizer, with four yellow cards issued in a 24-minute span. Cagliari’s Marco Palestra was booked in the 65th minute, followed by goalscorer Esposito for Como in the 71st. As the match entered its final phase, the decisive moment came from another substitute. In the 76th minute, Como’s Lucas Da Cunha, who had entered the fray in the second half, found the net to complete the comeback. The goal, assisted by the influential Esposito, silenced the home supporters and put Como ahead for the first time in the match.

Cagliari desperately pushed for a second equalizer in the closing minutes, but the Como defense held firm under pressure. The hosts’ efforts were further hampered when defender Alberto Dossena received a yellow card in the 89th minute. The final whistle confirmed a 2-1 win for the visitors, a result that contradicted Interstat’s pregame simulation which had projected a 1-1 draw.

The victory marks a perfect start to the Serie A campaign for Como, who begin the season with one win and no losses. The performance of Sebastiano Esposito, with a goal and an assist, was the cornerstone of their success. For Cagliari, the promising start provided by Baturina’s early goal ultimately faded, and they start their league season with a defeat, standing at zero wins and one loss. The match underscored the unpredictable nature of the Italian top flight, where pregame probabilities and simulations are often rendered moot by moments of individual brilliance and tactical adjustments from the bench.