RIJEKA, Croatia (March 4, 2026) (Interstat) — HNK Rijeka defeated rival Hajduk Split 3-2 in a Croatian Cup match Wednesday at Stadion HNK Rijeka, overcoming a significant pregame projection.

Interstat’s ELO system gave Hajduk Split a 91.6% probability to win. Rijeka opened the scoring with a 25th-minute goal from Rokas Pukštas. The match remained tight until second-half stoppage time, when Roko Brajković sealed the 3-2 victory for the hosts in the 95th minute. The final score surpassed a simulator projection of a 2-0 Rijeka win.

With the result, Rijeka advances in the Cup with a 1-0 record, while Hajduk Split begins its campaign 0-1.