VERONA, Italy (Interstat) — AS Giana Erminio opened its Serie C campaign with a 1-0 road upset of Virtus Verona on Saturday, defying pregame projections.

Matteo Marotta scored the match’s lone goal in the 11th minute at Stadio Comunale Gavagnin-Nocini. The visitors then defended stoutly to secure the victory.

The result flipped the statistical expectations. Interstat’s ELO system had given the home side a 55.4 percent probability to win, though the organization’s game simulator had correctly predicted the 1-0 scoreline.

Giana Erminio begins the season 1-0-0, while Virtus Verona starts 0-1-0. Both clubs see their overall records mirror those marks.