WOLFSBURG, Germany (Interstat) — In a stunning opening-day upset that defied statistical projections, second-division side Hamburger SV II defeated Bundesliga mainstay Wolfsburg 2-1 on Saturday at Volkswagen Arena.

The match, part of the Bundesliga’s organized competition, saw the visiting reserves of Hamburg capitalize on a late red card to secure a victory that heavily contrasted with pregame forecasts. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 2-2 draw, while its ELO system gave Wolfsburg an 81.9 percent probability to win.

Wolfsburg, playing at home, initially controlled proceedings and was rewarded in the 32nd minute. Midfielder Christian Eriksen found the net, assisted by defender Moritz Jenz, to give the top-flight side a 1-0 lead. The goal seemed to set the stage for a routine victory, but the disciplined Hamburg defense held firm under pressure.

The complexion of the match shifted dramatically in the second half through impactful substitutions. Hamburger SV II leveled the score in the 57th minute when substitute Jean-Luc Dompé finished a chance created by defender Jonas Adjetey, making it 1-1.

As Wolfsburg pressed to reclaim the lead, the match grew increasingly fractious. A flurry of yellow cards was issued in the final stages, setting the scene for a pivotal moment in the ninth minute of second-half stoppage time. Wolfsburg goalkeeper Marius Müller was shown a straight red card in the 90+9th minute, forcing the home side to finish the match with 10 men.

Hamburg immediately exploited the numerical advantage. Just moments after the restart following the dismissal, another substitute, Luka Vušković, delivered the decisive blow. He scored the winning goal in the dying seconds, assisted by fellow substitute Fabio Baldé, to complete the comeback and seal a 2-1 victory for the visitors.

The match was a physical affair, with six yellow cards issued in total. Hamburger SV II’s Daniel Elfadli received the first booking in the 20th minute. He was followed by Wolfsburg’s Jenz in the 32nd, Wolfsburg’s Jesper Lindstrøm in the 45th, and Hamburg’s Adjetey in the 57th. The tense finale produced two more cautions for Wolfsburg’s Fabio Vieira in the 90+6th minute and, just before the final whistle, for Hamburg’s Baldé in the 90+9th, concurrent with Müller’s red card.

The result marks a perfect start to the season for Hamburger SV II in this competition, improving their record to one win and no losses. For Wolfsburg, it is a disappointing beginning, leaving them with a record of no wins and one loss. The records across all competitions for both clubs mirror these marks following Saturday’s contest.