LEIPZIG, Germany (Interstat) — Substitute Arthur Chaves scored a dramatic stoppage-time winner as RB Leipzig opened its Bundesliga season with a 2-1 comeback victory over Augsburg on Saturday, March 7, 2026, at Red Bull Arena.

The match, which unfolded largely as projected by pregame analytics, saw the home side overcome a first-half deficit with a late surge, validating Interstat’s game simulator forecast of a 2-1 Leipzig win. The firm’s ELO rating system had given Leipzig a 68.80 percent probability of victory.

Augsburg, the visiting side, defied that probability for much of the contest and struck first against the run of play. In the 39th minute, Augsburg substitute Robin Fellhauer found the net to stun the home crowd and give his team a surprising lead at the interval. The goal capped a half where Leipzig controlled possession but struggled to create clear chances.

The second half saw increased urgency from the hosts. The equalizer finally arrived in the 76th minute through forward Yan Diomandé, who finished a move to level the score and shift the momentum decisively in Leipzig’s favor. The assist on the play was credited to Leipzig substitute Dimitris Giannoulis.

As the match entered added time, Leipzig’s pressure culminated in the decisive moment. Goalkeeper Maarten Vandevoordt initiated the winning sequence with a long distribution that was ultimately finished by fellow substitute Arthur Chaves in the second minute of stoppage time. The assist on the clinching goal went to Leipzig’s Keven Schlotterbeck, who also entered the match from the bench.

The contest was a physical affair, reflected in four yellow cards issued by the officiating crew. Two bookings came in a 23rd-minute incident involving Leipzig’s Keven Schlotterbeck and Augsburg goalkeeper Maarten Vandevoordt. Augsburg’s Noahkai Banks received a caution in the 62nd minute, and Leipzig’s Dimitris Giannoulis was booked in the 78th.

The result immediately separates the teams in the early Bundesliga table. RB Leipzig begins its campaign with a win, moving its season record in the competition to 1 win, 0 losses, while its overall record across all competitions also stands at 1-0. Augsburg, conversely, starts with a defeat, its record in the Bundesliga and overall now at 0 wins, 1 loss.

Key performances were defined by contributions off the bench. Beyond the goal scorers Chaves and Fellhauer, assists from substitutes Giannoulis and Schlotterbeck proved critical for Leipzig, while Augsburg’s Banks also provided an assist after entering as a substitute. Vandevoordt’s assist from his goalkeeping position for the winner was a notable statistical anomaly.

The victory provides a positive start for Leipzig under the pressure of home expectation, while Augsburg leaves with a narrow defeat after a resilient defensive effort for most of the match.