ISTANBUL (Interstat) — Kasimpasa opened its Süper Lig season with a dramatic 3-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük SK on Monday, overcoming a late equalizer with a stoppage-time winner at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.

The match, a Monday afternoon fixture in the Turkish top flight, delivered a back-and-forth contest that defied a pregame projection from Interstat, which had simulated a 1-1 draw. The same analytics system gave Kasimpasa an 88.10 percent probability to win.

Kasimpasa took control early. Midfielder Kerem Demirbay opened the scoring in the 19th minute, finishing an assist from defender Cláudio Winck to give the home side a lead it would carry into halftime. The first half concluded with two yellow cards, shown to Karagümrük’s Winck in the 34th minute and Kasimpasa’s İrfan Can Kahveci in first-half stoppage time.

The visitors emerged with renewed vigor after the break, but Kasimpasa doubled its advantage in the 62nd minute. Veteran forward Cenk Tosun found the net, assisted by Pape Habib Guèye, to make it 2-0. Tosun then turned provider just nine minutes later, setting up Kahveci for a goal in the 71st minute that appeared to seal the match at 3-0. Kahveci’s goal was immediately followed by a yellow card to Karagümrük defender Rodrigo Becão.

Fatih Karagümrük SK, however, mounted a stunning comeback over the final phase of the match. Substitute Filip Mladenović ignited the rally with an 80th-minute goal, assisted by fellow substitute Matías Kranevitter. Mladenović’s strike shifted momentum and was followed by a yellow card to Karagümrük’s Sam Larsson a minute later.

The pressure culminated in a 92nd-minute equalizer from another Karagümrük substitute, Ahmed Traore, who scored off an assist from Larsson to stun the home crowd and level the score at 2-2. The goal came after a yellow card to Karagümrük’s Guèye in the 89th minute.

Kasimpasa, refusing to settle for a point, launched one final attack. In the fifth minute of second-half stoppage time, Traore received a yellow card, but the decisive action came from Kasimpasa’s substitutes. With the last meaningful play of the game, Kasimpasa found a winner to complete the roller-coaster match, securing a 3-2 victory and sending the home supporters into celebration.

The result gives Kasimpasa a winning start to the new Süper Lig campaign, moving its league record to 1 win, 0 losses. Fatih Karagümrük SK begins its season with a narrow defeat, its record now 0 wins, 1 losses. Both teams’ records across all competitions mirror their opening league results.