CHOLOMA, Honduras (Interstat) — In a tightly contested Liga Nacional match that defied pregame projections, Atletico Choloma secured a 2-1 victory over Victoria on Saturday at Estadio Municipal Rubén Deras.

The result flipped the script from both the teams’ most recent meeting and the statistical forecasts. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 2-1 win for Victoria, whose ELO rating gave them a 54.4 percent probability of victory. Furthermore, Victoria had handily won the previous encounter 4-1 on Dec. 2. Instead, Atletico Choloma continued a season-long pattern of narrow success in this fixture, having now won three of the last four head-to-head matches by a single goal.

The game’s decisive sequence was a rapid exchange just before halftime. Atletico Choloma’s Marco Aceituno opened the scoring in the 34th minute, breaking the deadlock for the home side. Victoria responded immediately, as Yaudel Lahera leveled the score just six minutes later in the 40th minute, sending the teams to the break knotted at 1-1.

The match winner came early in the second half. In the 46th minute, Atletico Choloma’s Yethson Chavez found the net, restoring the home team’s lead. Despite sustained pressure from the visitors in search of another equalizer, the Choloma defense held firm to preserve the advantage and secure three critical points in the league standings.

The victory improves Atletico Choloma’s record in the Liga Nacional to 6 wins, 18 losses and 4 draws this season. Across all competitions, they hold an identical 6-18-4 mark. The loss leaves Victoria with a 7-21-4 record in the domestic league, which mirrors their overall season tally of 7-21-4.

The win provides a positive momentum shift for Atletico Choloma, which had managed only one draw in its two previous league matches, including a 2-1 loss to Real Espana on Feb. 14. Victoria, meanwhile, sees a modest two-game unbeaten run snapped. They had entered the match following a surprising 2-1 win over powerhouse Olimpia on Feb. 15 and a draw with Motagua on Feb. 7.

Both teams face quick turnarounds in league play. Atletico Choloma travels to face Olimpia on Wednesday. Victoria will host Olancho on Tuesday before traveling to face Juticalpa on Saturday.