ZANZIBAR CITY, Tanzania (Interstat) — Elvis Rupia’s first-half goal defied pregame projections and propelled Singida Black Stars FC to a narrow 1-0 victory over AS Otoho in CAF Confederation Cup group stage play Sunday at Amaan Stadium.

The match, contested between Tanzanian and Congolese sides, was a tense, physical affair that saw seven yellow cards issued. The decisive moment arrived in the 37th minute when Rupia, the Singida forward, found the back of the net. The buildup to the goal involved multiple contributors, with assists credited to defenders and midfielders alike, highlighting a cohesive team move that unlocked the Otoho defense.

The goal itself triggered an immediate reaction, as Otoho’s Prince Mouandza received a yellow card during the same sequence of play. The caution set the tone for a chippy second half, where six more players were booked as Otoho pressed for an equalizer and Singida fought to preserve its lead.

The result was an upset according to one major statistical model. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-0 victory for the visiting AS Otoho. However, another metric from the same service, an ELO rating system, had given the home side a 57.7 percent probability of winning. Singida’s performance ultimately aligned with the latter forecast.

With the win, Singida Black Stars FC improved its record in this season’s Confederation Cup to three wins, one loss and one draw, strengthening its position in the group standings. The team’s overall record across all competitions now mirrors that Confederation Cup mark. The solitary goal was enough to secure three critical points in the pursuit of knockout round qualification.

For AS Otoho, the defeat marked a missed opportunity. The club’s record in the competition fell to three wins and two losses, while its overall season record also stands at 3-2. The visitors entered the match following a strong 4-1 victory over CR Belouizdad in late November but could not replicate that offensive output against a disciplined Singida defense.

Singida’s recent form has been mixed, with a draw against Stellenbosch FC and a loss to CR Belouizdad preceding this victory. The win provides positive momentum as the group stage advances.

The match was one of few chances, with both defenses largely controlling the flow. Otoho, which had scored seven goals in its two previous Confederation Cup victories, was held scoreless for the first time in the tournament. Singida’s defensive organization, despite the numerous cautions, proved effective in securing a clean sheet and a valuable home victory.

The Confederation Cup, Africa’s secondary club competition, continues its group stage with subsequent matches scheduled for February.