ROME (Interstat) — In a dramatic season-opening Serie A Women clash that defied pregame projections, AC Milan and Lazio Women played to a 2-2 draw on Saturday at the Centro Sportivo di Formello.

The match, contested before a crowd at Lazio’s Campo Mirko Fersini training ground, saw four second-half goals and two lead changes, resulting in a share of the points. The outcome was a surprise according to pregame analytics from Interstat, whose ELO system had given Lazio Women a 94.50 percent probability of victory and whose simulator had projected a 1-1 finish.

The first half was a tense, tactical affair with few clear chances. The deadlock was broken in the 32nd minute by AC Milan’s French forward Clarisse Le Bihan, who put the visiting Rossonere ahead against the run of play.

Lazio responded after the interval. Coach Alessandro Spugna’s decision to introduce Ewelina Kamczyk as a substitute paid immediate dividends. Just ten minutes after entering the match, Kamczyk found the net in the 55th minute, capitalizing on a defensive lapse to equalize for the home side.

Buoyed by the goal, Lazio seized control. Another substitute made a decisive impact when Angelica Soffia, who had also entered the match in the second half, put Lazio Women ahead in the 65th minute. The assist came from defender Federica D’Auria, who was later shown a yellow card in the 48th minute for a tactical foul.

With Lazio now leading and appearing to confirm the heavy favorite status bestowed by statistical models, AC Milan faced an uphill battle. The visitors persisted, and their pressure was rewarded in the 82nd minute. Polish striker Nikola Karczewska, a key offensive threat throughout the match, delivered the final blow, scoring the game-tying goal to secure a vital point for her team. The assist was credited to forward Flamini Simonetti, who received a yellow card in the 78th minute.

The final minutes saw both teams push for a winner, but neither could break through, leaving the score level. The result leaves both teams with identical records in the early Serie A Women season: no wins, no losses, and one draw. Their overall records across all competitions also mirror each other.

The match highlighted the impact of squad depth, with both teams’ substitutes scoring crucial goals. It also served as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of the league, as the heavily favored Lazio side was forced to settle for a draw after twice surrendering a lead. For AC Milan, the road point against a projected title contender will be viewed as a positive start to the campaign.