CASABLANCA, Morocco (Jan. 17, 2026) (Interstat) — Nigeria delivered a 1-0 upset victory over Egypt on Saturday in an Africa Cup of Nations group stage match at Stade Mohamed V. The lone goal, scored in the second half, came from a substitute as Nigeria defied pre-game projections.

Interstat’s game simulator had predicted a 1-1 draw, and its ELO system gave Egypt a 62.1% chance to win. Nigeria’s decisive goal resulted from a sequence involving three second-half substitutes: Ogbu Igoh, Moses Simon and Paul Onuachu were each credited with an assist on the play.

All three Nigerian substitutes also received yellow cards during the match. The result marked a successful start to the tournament for Nigeria, while host nation Egypt began with a loss.