ROME (Interstat) — AS Roma looks to avenge a recent defeat and halt a surging Cagliari side when the clubs meet in a Serie A match Monday at the Stadio Olimpico.

The fixture is a reversal of their Dec. 7 meeting, which Cagliari won 1-0 at home. That result is part of a stunning midseason surge for the Sardinian club, which enters Monday’s contest unbeaten in its last four league matches. That run includes a 4-0 demolition of Verona on Jan. 31 and impressive victories over Juventus (1-0) and Fiorentina (2-1).

In contrast, Roma’s form has been inconsistent. The Giallorossi are winless in their last two Serie A outings, following a 1-1 draw with AC Milan with a 1-0 loss at Udinese on Feb. 2. Their most recent match was a scoreless draw against Genoa’s under-20 side on Saturday in a non-league fixture.

Statistical models heavily favor the hosts. Interstat’s ELO rating system gives Roma a 73.5% probability of victory, and its game simulator projects a narrow 1-0 win for the capital club.

The match presents a classic clash of momentum versus pedigree. Cagliari, riding a wave of confidence from its best stretch of the season, will aim to complete a rare league double over Roma. The visitors’ resilience is evident, with their only loss in the last seven league games a 3-0 defeat at Genoa on Jan. 12.

Roma, however, will be desperate to leverage home advantage and correct its recent slide before a daunting trip to face Napoli next Sunday in Serie A. Manager José Mourinho is expected to field his strongest available side, seeking to disrupt Cagliari’s rhythm and convert possession into goals—an issue in recent league play.

Cagliari manager Claudio Ranieri, a former Roma boss, returns to the Olimpico having masterminded the December upset. His team’s organized defense and opportunistic counter-attack, led by in-form forwards, will test Roma’s resolve.

Following Monday’s match, Cagliari’s next Serie A assignment is at home to Lecce on Feb. 16. Roma faces a quick turnaround with a league match at Napoli and a non-league fixture at Inter’s under-20 side, both scheduled for Feb. 15.

Kickoff is set for 8:45 p.m. local (1945 GMT).