MONASTIR, Tunisia (Interstat) — In a Tunisian Ligue 1 match that defied statistical projections, Monastir secured a 2-1 comeback victory over ES Tunis on Monday at Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet.

The result, played on Jan. 19, 2026, handed the visiting club from the capital a defeat to open its domestic campaign while providing the home side an early-season boost.

The game began contrary to both form and forecast. Despite pre-match simulations from Interstat giving Monastir a overwhelming 92.90 percent probability to win, it was ES Tunis who struck first. Jack Diarra found the net in the 10th minute, silencing the home crowd and aligning momentarily with Interstat’s separate projection of a 1-0 victory for the visitors.

Monastir, undeterred by the early deficit, began to assert control. The equalizer arrived at the half-hour mark when Fakhreddine Ben Youssef scored, leveling the match at 1-1 and shifting momentum firmly in favor of the hosts.

The decisive blow came just before halftime. In the 47th minute, Youssef Abdelli scored to complete the turnaround, sending Monastir into the break with a 2-1 lead.

The second half saw ES Tunis press for an equalizer, but the Monastir defense held firm to preserve the advantage. The final whistle confirmed a significant opening-day result in the Tunisian top flight.

With the victory, Monastir begins its Ligue 1 season with a perfect record of one win and no losses. The club’s overall record across all competitions this season also stands at one win and no losses.

For ES Tunis, the loss marks a disappointing start to its league campaign, beginning the season with no wins and one loss. Its record across all competitions mirrors that domestic start.

The match served as an early statement in the league, with Monastir capitalizing on its home-field advantage to secure three points against a traditional powerhouse, overcoming an early goal to do so. The outcome highlighted the unpredictable nature of the sport, as the actual result directly contradicted the detailed numerical forecasts provided before kickoff.