BREDA, Netherlands (Interstat) — Excelsior opened its Eredivisie season with an efficient 2-0 victory over 10-man NAC Breda on Friday afternoon at Rat Verlegh Stadion, defying pre-match projections with a performance powered by its substitutes.

The match turned decisively in the 12th minute when NAC Breda defender Rio Hillen was shown a straight red card, forcing the home side to play nearly the entire contest a man down. Excelsior capitalized on the numerical advantage less than six minutes later.

In the 18th minute, midfielder Mohamed Nassoh provided the assist for the opening goal, finished by substitute Emil Hansson. Hansson had entered the match earlier following the red card incident. Excelsior doubled its lead in the 31st minute. Another substitute, Irakli Yegoian, found the net, with the assist credited to Miliano Jonathans.

The two-goal cushion, established before halftime, proved insurmountable for NAC Breda. Excelsior managed the second half effectively, maintaining its clean sheet despite a flurry of yellow cards. Four Excelsior players were booked in the second half: Arthur Zagre in the 52nd minute, Nassoh in the 63rd, Jonathans in the 68th and defender Clint Leemans in the 89th. Zagre and Leemans were also credited with assists on the night’s goals.

The result was an upset according to pre-game analytics. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 2-1 victory for NAC Breda, and its ELO system gave the home side a 53.20 percent probability of winning.

With the victory, Excelsior begins its Eredivisie campaign with one win and no losses. NAC Breda starts with no wins and one loss. The records are identical across all competitions for both clubs.

The game was organized by the Eredivisie, the top professional football league in the Netherlands.