Preview: Pavia Hosts Caldiero Terme in Serie D Clash

PAVIA, Italy (Interstat) — Pavia will host Caldiero Terme in a Serie D football match on Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026, with the visitors entering as slight statistical favorites despite a projected draw.

The matchup at Pavia’s home ground is a return to league action following the winter break. Both teams last played on Sunday, Dec. 21.

Caldiero Terme (6-5-4) arrives with momentum from a 2-1 away victory over Varesina in its last outing. That win snapped a four-match winless streak in the league. Its season has been marked by resilience, including a notable 2-0 victory over AC Milan on Oct. 19, but also inconsistency, as shown in recent draws with Folgore Carate and AVC Vogherese 1919.

Pavia (3-8-4) seeks to rebound from a 2-0 home defeat to AC ChievoVerona on Dec. 21. That loss extended its current winless run to five matches. Pavia’s campaign has been defined by stalemates, with seven of its 15 matches ending in draws, including a 4-0 rout of Villa Valle on Nov. 2 highlighting its sporadic attacking potential.

Statistical models present a conflicting outlook. Interstat’s game simulator predicts a 1-1 draw. However, the organization’s ELO rating system calculates Caldiero Terme with a 59.50 percent probability of winning outright.

Key tactical battles will likely center on midfield control. Caldiero Terme has shown an ability to secure results on the road this season. Pavia will rely on its home support and need to convert its frequent draws into three points to climb the table.

The match kicks off at 2:30 p.m. local time (1330 GMT) as part of the Serie D, Italy’s top non-professional league.