GUADALAJARA, Mexico (Interstat) — Substitute José Rodríguez scored a dramatic stoppage-time winner to propel Cancún to a 2-1 victory over Leones Negros in a Liga de Expansión MX match Sunday at Estadio Jalisco.

The match, which defied pregame projections, was decided in the final moments of second-half stoppage time. Interstat’s game simulator had forecast a 1-1 draw, and its ELO rating system gave the home side a slight edge with a 51.7% probability to win. Cancún’s late-game resilience overturned both expectations.

The first half was a physical, contentious affair that produced three yellow cards but no goals. Cancún’s Ulíses Meza was booked in the 26th minute, followed by a caution for his teammate Juan Brigido in the 39th. Leones Negros’ Armando Chávez received a yellow card just before halftime in the 43rd minute.

The breakthrough finally came in the dying moments of the first half’s added time. In the 45+3 minute, Rodríguez made his initial impact. He finished a play assisted by midfielder Óscar Villa to give the visiting side a 1-0 lead heading into the interval.

The second half saw Leones Negros push aggressively for an equalizer. Their efforts were rewarded in the 90+4 minute, deep into second-half stoppage time, when defender Arturo Ledesma found the net. The goal, assisted by forward Juan Brigido, appeared to have salvaged a draw for the home side, momentarily fulfilling the simulator’s prediction.

However, Cancún had a swift and stunning response. From the ensuing restart, play moved quickly, and Rodríguez struck again. The substitute, who entered the match as a tactical change, completed his brace with a goal assisted by fellow substitute Armando Chávez to reclaim the lead mere moments after it had been lost.

The frantic finale also included a yellow card for Leones Negros midfielder Óscar Villa in the 89th minute, just prior to the late goal flurry.

The result gives Cancún a winning start to its Liga de Expansión MX campaign, improving its record in the competition to one win and no losses. Their overall season record across all tournaments also stands at one win and no losses. For Leones Negros, the heartbreaking defeat marks an 0-1 start both in the league and overall for the season.

Rodríguez’s two-goal performance off the bench was the decisive factor, supported by assists from Villa and Chávez for Cancún. For Leones Negros, Ledesma’s goal from the back line and Brigido’s assist provided the temporary equalizer, but it was not enough to avert a season-opening loss at home.