WOLFSBURG, Germany (Interstat) — Augsburg stunned Wolfsburg with a pair of late goals from substitutes to claim a 3-2 comeback victory in a Bundesliga match Saturday at Volkswagen Arena, defying pregame projections that heavily favored the hosts.

The visitors overturned a one-goal deficit in the final minutes to secure the win, handing Wolfsburg a loss to open its league campaign while Augsburg started its season with a victory.

Wolfsburg controlled the early proceedings and was rewarded four minutes before halftime. Midfielder Yannick Gerhardt opened the scoring in the 41st minute, finishing an assist from Lovro Majer to give the home side a lead it would carry into the break.

The match turned in a frantic three-minute span early in the second half. Augsburg’s substitute striker Rodrigo Ribeiro, who had entered the game at halftime, leveled the score in the 59th minute. He capitalized on an assist from fellow substitute Keven Schlotterbeck to make it 1-1. However, Ribeiro’s involvement was immediately tempered as he received a yellow card just five minutes after his goal.

Wolfsburg responded swiftly, retaking the lead in the 64th minute through forward Kento Shiogai, who converted a pass from midfielder Mattias Svanberg to make it 2-1. The goal sparked a period of increased tension, reflected in a flurry of yellow cards. Wolfsburg’s Svanberg was booked in the 64th minute, and Augsburg’s Jeanuël Belocian saw yellow in the 86th minute, followed immediately by a caution for his teammate Kristijan Jakić.

The dramatic conclusion unfolded in second-half stoppage time. Augsburg, pushing for an equalizer, found it in the 93rd minute. Substitute midfielder Elvis Rexhbecaj scored to tie the game at 2-2, assisted by Michael Gregoritsch. The comeback was completed just minutes later when Gregoritsch, another second-half substitution, delivered the decisive blow. The Austrian forward scored the winning goal, assisted by Jakić, to complete Augsburg’s rally and seal a 3-2 victory. Gregoritsch was shown a yellow card in the 98th minute amid the chaotic finish.

The result was a significant upset according to pregame analytics. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw, while its ELO rating system gave Wolfsburg a 71.10 percent probability of winning the match. Augsburg’s substitutes proved instrumental in the victory, directly contributing to all three goals. Gregoritsch finished with a goal and an assist, Ribeiro added a goal and an assist, and Rexhbecaj scored the vital equalizer.

Wolfsburg’s season record in the Bundesliga falls to 0 wins and 1 loss with the defeat, while its overall record across all competitions matches that mark. Augsburg’s Bundesliga and overall record improves to 1 win and 0 losses. The teams will look to build on these results in their next league fixtures.