TAPATITLAN, Mexico (Interstat) — Tapatio opened its Liga de Expansión MX season with a convincing 2-0 victory over Leones Negros on Friday night, defying a pregame statistical projection that forecast a draw.

The match, played before a home crowd at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez, was decided by two first-half goals in a nine-minute span. The result handed Tapatio an immediate boost in the early league table, while Leones Negros left searching for answers after a shutout loss.

The game’s first major moment came in the 34th minute when Tapatio midfielder Daniel Villaseca received a yellow card, a sign of the growing intensity. The home side’s pressure soon paid off. Just three minutes later, in the 37th minute, forward Sergio Aguayo broke the deadlock with the opening goal. The assist came from midfielder Jorge Rodríguez, who quickly turned from provider to scorer.

Before Leones Negros could regroup, Tapatio struck again. In the 46th minute, just before the halftime whistle, Rodríguez found the net himself to double the lead. The assist on the pivotal second goal was credited to forward Leonardo Jiménez.

The two-goal cushion proved insurmountable for the visiting Leones Negros, who struggled to create consistent dangerous chances throughout the contest. Their offensive frustrations were mirrored in a physical second half, which saw Tapatio’s Jiménez enter the referee’s book with a yellow card in the 76th minute.

The victory was a positive start for Tapatio under the Liga de Expansión MX framework, improving its record to one win and no losses in the competition. The club’s overall season record across all tournaments now stands at the same mark. For Leones Negros, the loss was a disappointing beginning, leaving them with a record of no wins and one loss both in the league and overall for the season.

The outcome notably surpassed the expectations set by pregame analytics. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw, while its ELO rating system gave Tapatio a 59.5 percent probability of securing a win. The home side’s performance, particularly the decisive first-half flurry, comfortably outperformed those metrics.

Key individual performances defined the match. Midfielder Jorge Rodríguez was instrumental for Tapatio, contributing a goal and an assist to drive the victory. Forward Sergio Aguayo provided the crucial first goal, while assists from Daniel Villaseca and Leonardo Jiménez were vital in building the lead that sealed the three points.

The match was the first of the season for both clubs in Mexico’s second-tier league. Tapatio will look to build on the momentum from this shutout win in its next fixture, while Leones Negros must address its lack of scoring punch ahead of its second outing.