AL MUHARRAQ, Bahrain (Interstat) — Al Najma opened its domestic campaign with a dramatic 2-1 victory over rival Bahrain SC on Saturday, a result that unfolded almost exactly as statistical models had foreseen.

The Premier League fixture, played before a vocal crowd at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Stadium, saw the home side secure the win with a goal deep into second-half stoppage time, capping a match that saw momentum shift decisively after the visitors took an early lead.

Bahrain SC, the visiting side, struck first against the run of play late in the first half. In the 47th minute, forward Hassine Refai found space on the left side and delivered a precise finish to put his team ahead. That goal sent Bahrain SC into the break with a surprising 1-0 advantage, defying the pregame projections that heavily favored Al Najma.

The home side, however, controlled possession and increased pressure throughout the second half. Their persistence was finally rewarded in the 82nd minute. Brazilian attacker Gabriel Oliveira leveled the score with a well-taken strike from the right side, setting up a frantic final phase of the match.

With the game appearing destined for a draw, Al Najma found a winner at the death. In the eighth minute of added time, substitute Saud Faisal became the hero, firing home from the left to spark celebrations among the home supporters. The final whistle sounded shortly after the restart.

The outcome validated the pre-match analytics from Interstat. The organization’s game simulator had projected a final score of 2-1 for Al Najma, while its ELO rating system gave the home club a 77 percent probability of victory.

With the result, Al Najma begins its season in the Premier League with a win and no losses, while also maintaining a perfect record across all competitions. Bahrain SC starts its campaign with a loss in both the league and overall.

The match was the first of the new year for both clubs in Bahrain’s top flight. Al Najma will look to build on the momentum of the comeback win in its next outing, while Bahrain SC must regroup after letting a valuable point slip away in the closing moments.