MONTPELLIER, France (Interstat) — Montpellier opened its Ligue 2 campaign with a commanding 3-1 victory over Guingamp on Friday afternoon at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, defying a pregame projection of a draw with a dominant second-half performance.

The match, played on Jan. 30, 2026, was ultimately decided by the clinical finishing of Montpellier forward Alex Mendy, who scored twice after entering the game as a substitute. His brace overturned an early deficit and propelled the home side to a win that contrasted sharply with the 1-1 final score predicted by Interstat’s game simulator. The same analytics system had given Montpellier a 66.5 percent probability to win based on its ELO ratings.

Guingamp struck first against the run of play in the 18th minute. Substitute Louis Mafouta, who had just entered the match, found the net to give the visitors a surprising early lead. Montpellier responded before halftime, however, with midfielder Everson Junior leveling the score in the 42nd minute.

The second half belonged entirely to Montpellier and Mendy. The forward, introduced from the bench, needed only minutes to make his impact, putting the home side ahead. He later sealed the victory with his second goal, showcasing efficiency that Guingamp lacked throughout the evening. Montpellier’s attacking depth was on full display, with all three goals and the majority of assists coming from substitutes. Akim Abdallah, Jérémy Hatchi, Alpha Sissoko, Sohaib Nair and Donatien Gomis all registered assists after coming off the bench, alongside contributions from starters Julien Laporte, Nathanael Mbuku and Naoufel El Hannach.

The match was a physical and often fractious affair, with the referee issuing eight yellow cards. Guingamp’s Nathanael Mbuku was booked in the 7th minute, setting a contentious tone. The cautions continued throughout, with seven more players seeing yellow, including Guingamp’s Akim Abdallah in the 21st minute and a flurry around halftime involving Montpellier’s Julien Laporte and Guingamp’s Sohaib Nair in stoppage time.

The result provides an immediate boost to Montpellier’s aspirations in France’s second division, giving them a perfect start with one win and no losses. For Guingamp, the defeat marks a disappointing beginning to their league season, leaving them with one loss and no wins. The records across all competitions for both clubs mirror their opening-day results in Ligue 2.

Montpellier’s ability to leverage its bench proved the decisive factor, turning a projected draw into a comprehensive victory and validating their status as pregame favorites. Guingamp, meanwhile, will look to regroup after a match where a bright start faded under sustained pressure and a prolific performance from Montpellier’s attacking substitutes.