SALVADOR, Brazil (Interstat) — EC Vitoria opened its Serie A season with a 1-0 upset victory over Sao Paulo on Sunday at Estádio Manoel Barradas.

The match’s lone goal came in the 68th minute from midfielder Gabriel Baralhas, who also assisted on his own score. The result defied pregame projections that heavily favored the visitors. Interstat’s game simulator had predicted a 2-1 Sao Paulo win, and its ELO system gave Sao Paulo an 80 percent probability of victory.

The match was physical, featuring six yellow cards. Vitoria begins the Brazilian top-flight campaign with a win, while Sao Paulo starts with a loss.