RIO DE JANEIRO (Interstat) — Fluminense opened its 2025 Serie A campaign with a commanding 2-0 victory over EC Bahia on Sunday at a rain-slicked Maracanã Stadium, a result that defied one statistical projection while emphatically fulfilling another.

Playing before its home supporters at the iconic Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, commonly known as the Maracanã, Fluminense controlled proceedings for much of the match but required a late flurry to break down a stubborn Bahia defense. The visitors, organized and disciplined, managed to frustrate the hosts for over an hour, keeping the match scoreless deep into the second half.

The breakthrough finally arrived in the 75th minute. The sequence began with defender Samuel Xavier, who pushed forward from his right-back position to deliver a precise assist. His pass found midfielder Ganso in a dangerous area, and the veteran playmaker made no mistake, slotting home to give Fluminense a 1-0 lead and ignite the home crowd.

Just eight minutes later, Fluminense doubled its advantage and effectively sealed the three points. This time, the goal came from an unlikely source but a familiar face. Central defender Thiago Silva, the 41-year-old former Brazil captain, powered home a header from a set-piece delivery supplied by midfielder Nonato. The goal in the 83rd minute capped a dominant defensive performance from Silva and extinguished any lingering hopes of a Bahia comeback.

The match was a physical affair, reflected in the five yellow cards issued by the officiating crew. Fluminense’s Nonato was booked in the 9th minute, setting an early tone. Bahia’s Nicolás Acevedo received a caution in the 20th minute. Fluminense’s Samuel Xavier saw yellow in the 68th minute, just before his key contribution to the opening goal. Bahia substitute Erick Pulga was booked in the 74th minute, and Fluminense substitute Rodrigo Nestor received a caution in second-half stoppage time.

The result provided a stark contrast to pre-match analytics. Interstat’s game simulator had projected an upset, forecasting a 1-0 victory for the visiting Bahia side. However, the organization’s more renowned ELO rating system told a different story, assigning Fluminense a 91.6 percent probability to win the match. The performance on the pitch ultimately aligned with the latter forecast, as Fluminense’s quality and pressure told in the final quarter of the game.

Tactical substitutions proved influential for the home side. Manager Fernando Diniz’s changes injected fresh energy and creativity, with substitutes Erick, Rodrigo Nestor, Nicolás Acevedo and Erick Pulga all registering assists in the buildup to the two goals, highlighting the team’s depth and multifaceted attack.

With the victory, Fluminense begins its Serie A season with a perfect record of one win and no losses, carrying that form across all competitions. Bahia, meanwhile, is left to search for its first positive result of the year, opening its campaign with a loss in both Serie A and overall. The teams will look to build on these contrasting starts when the Brazilian top-flight season continues next weekend.