ELDA, Spain (Interstat) — CD Eldense II delivered an upset victory in the Copa del Rey Juvenil on Wednesday, defeating the favored UD Almería 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat.

The result defied pre-game projections from Interstat, whose simulator had forecast a 1-0 win for Almería. Their Elo system, however, gave the home side a 72.6% probability of victory. Eldense II made that statistical advantage a reality on the pitch, opening its campaign in the Spanish youth knockout competition with a win, while Almería began with a defeat.

The visiting side from Almería struck first against the run of play. Substitute Patrick Soko, entering the game to provide a spark, broke the deadlock in the 30th minute. The goal gave the visitors a halftime lead and positioned them to capitalize on their pre-game favoritism.

Eldense II responded after the break. The equalizer came in the 54th minute from forward Hamza Bellari, who finished a chance to level the score. The assist was credited to midfielder Jesús, whose pass unlocked the Almería defense.

Momentum shifted decisively to the home side just 11 minutes later. Midfielder Nacho Quintana found the net in the 65th minute, scoring what would stand as the game-winning goal. The decisive play was set up by another substitute, Sergio Arribas, who recorded an assist shortly after his introduction.

The match grew tense in the final moments, with three yellow cards issued in stoppage time. Eldense II’s Marcos Bustillo was booked in the 89th minute. In added time, Almería’s Jesús and Eldense II’s Sergio Arribas both received cautions in the 93rd and 95th minutes, respectively.

With the victory, CD Eldense II begins its season in the Copa del Rey Juvenil with one win and no losses. Their overall record across all competitions also stands at one win and no losses. UD Almería starts its campaign in the tournament with no wins and one loss, mirroring its overall record for the season.

The match showcased impactful performances from several individuals. For the winners, goal-scorers Hamza Bellari and Nacho Quintana provided the crucial offense, while substitute Sergio Arribas contributed a key assist. For Almería, early substitute Patrick Soko made an immediate impact with his first-half goal, and midfielder Jesús notched an assist before his late booking.

The fixture, part of the early stages of the national youth cup, was played on a cool December evening in Elda. The home supporters saw their young side overcome an early deficit to secure a victory that contradicted one key pre-game simulation but affirmed another broader measure of team strength.