GLASGOW, Scotland (Interstat) — In a stunning opening-day upset, Hibernian defeated Celtic 2-1 on Sunday at Celtic Park, defying heavy statistical odds and capitalizing on a second-half red card to the home side.

The Scottish Premiership fixture, played Feb. 22, 2026, saw the visiting Hibs overcome a projected 84.80 percent win probability for Celtic, according to Interstat’s ELO system. The same analytics service had simulated a final score of 2-1 in favor of Celtic, but the reality on the pitch sharply contrasted the pre-match forecasts.

The match began with Celtic asserting early pressure, but it was Hibernian’s substitute Felix Passlack who broke the deadlock against the run of play in the 24th minute. The goal seemed to spark a response from the hosts, and Celtic captain Callum McGregor was shown a yellow card just a minute later for a frustrated challenge.

Celtic found its equalizer just before halftime. In the 45th minute, forward Benjamin Nygren finished off a buildup to send the teams into the break level at 1-1.

The match’s pivotal moment arrived in the 74th minute when Celtic defender Auston Trusty was shown a straight red card, forcing the home side to play a man down for the final 16 minutes plus stoppage time. Hibernian pressed its numerical advantage, and another substitute made the decisive impact.

In the 87th minute, Hibernian’s Kai Andrews netted the winning goal, assisted by Nicky Cadden, who had entered the match as a substitute and was later booked. Celtic defender Liam Scales, who provided the assist on Nygren’s first-half goal, also received a yellow card in the frantic closing minutes as his team pushed unsuccessfully for a second equalizer.

The result immediately inverts the early-season narrative in the Premiership. Hibernian begins its campaign with a perfect record of one win and no losses, both in league play and across all competitions. Celtic, conversely, starts with a defeat, standing at zero wins and one loss in the Premiership and overall.

The victory for Hibernian was built on effective counter-attacking and crucial contributions from its bench, with both goals coming from substitutes. Celtic, despite controlling significant periods of the match and the efforts of key players like Nygren and McGregor, was ultimately undone by the dismissal of Trusty and a resilient Hibs defense that held firm under late pressure. The upset serves as a dramatic opening chapter to the 2026 Premiership season.