TRÍPOLI, Greece (Interstat) — AS Aris Thessalonikis opened its Super League 1 season with a 1-0 road upset of Asteras Tripolis on Saturday, defying heavy statistical odds.

The lone goal came in the 22nd minute at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, with defender Robert Ivanov scoring. The sequence involved multiple substitutes, with assists credited to Lindsay Rose, Kostas Galanopoulos and Michail Panagidis.

The result flipped the pregame projections. Interstat’s simulator had forecast a 1-1 draw, and its ELO system gave the home side an 83.2% probability to win.

The match was physical, featuring seven yellow cards. Aris improved to 1-0-0 in league play, while Asteras Tripolis fell to 0-1-0.