KHMELLNYTSKYI, Ukraine (Interstat) — In a match that defied pregame projections, visiting Sumy secured a 2-1 victory over Pod Khmelnytskyi on Tuesday in a Persha Liga contest marked by early goals and a decisive late strike.

The game, played at Stadion Podillya, unfolded contrary to the statistical expectations set by Interstat’s systems, which had heavily favored Pod Khmelnytskyi with an 84.10 percent probability to win and projected a 1-1 draw.

The visitors from Sumy established their intent immediately, stunning the home crowd with a goal in just the fourth minute. Vadym Shavrin found the net to give his team an early advantage. The lead was doubled before the quarter-hour mark when Stanislav Sharai scored in the 13th minute, putting Pod Khmelnytskyi in a significant early hole.

The home side, struggling to break down a determined Sumy defense for much of the match, managed to claw a goal back in the 77th minute through Oleksandr Chernov, setting up a tense finale. However, Sumy’s defense held firm through nearly 20 minutes of stoppage time to preserve the three points.

The result provides a vital boost for Sumy’s campaign, improving their record within the Persha Liga to six wins, 10 losses and four draws this season. Their overall record across all competitions moves to eight wins, 11 losses and four draws. The loss is a setback for Pod Khmelnytskyi, which sees its league record shift to five wins, 10 losses and four draws, with an overall mark of six wins, 11 losses and four draws.

The match represented a reversal of fortune from the teams’ previous meeting this season, a scoreless draw in Sumy on Sept. 21, 2025.

Sumy entered the match with mixed recent form, having secured a 1-0 home win over Ternopilsky PFC Nyva on April 3 but suffering a 2-1 away loss to Metalist Kharkiv on March 28 prior to that. Pod Khmelnytskyi’s form coming in was poor, having been shut out in consecutive losses, including a 3-0 defeat at FK Probij Horodenka on April 3 and a 1-0 home loss to FK Ahrobiznes Volochysk on March 28.

Looking ahead, Sumy will aim to build on this away victory when they host FK Vorskla Poltava on April 12 in their next Persha Liga fixture. Their upcoming schedule also includes trips to FK UKSA and Metalurh Zaporizhya in late April and early May.

Pod Khmelnytskyi, seeking to rebound from this disappointing home result, faces a quick turnaround with a trip to face Prykarpattya Ivano-Frank on April 11. They will then return home to host Chernihiv on April 18 as they look to improve their standing in the league table.

The win moves Sumy ahead of Pod Khmelnytskyi in the Persha Liga standings based on total victories, as both teams continue their pursuit of improved positioning in the latter stage of the season. The game’s outcome, diverging sharply from algorithmic forecasts, underscored the unpredictable nature of the competition.