TOKYO (Interstat) — Substitute Soma Anzai scored in the 87th minute to lift FC Tōkyō to a 1-0 victory over Machida Zelvia on Sunday, delivering a stunning upset in the J1 League season opener for both clubs at Japan National Stadium.

The match, a fiercely contested capital derby, was largely defined by defensive discipline and was on track to end in a scoreless draw until Anzai’s late intervention. The result defied overwhelming pregame projections that heavily favored the home side.

According to the Interstat game simulator, the match was projected to finish in a 1-1 draw. More strikingly, the same service’s ELO system gave Machida Zelvia a 91 percent probability of winning, making FC Tōkyō’s victory one of the more statistically improbable results of the young season.

The game’s only goal materialized from a moment of individual quality. Midfielder Hiroyuki Mae, who had been shown a yellow card in the 42nd minute, provided the crucial assist, threading a pass that found Anzai in a dangerous position. The substitute made no mistake with his finish, sparking celebrations among the traveling supporters.

The match was a physical affair, with two cautions issued by the officiating crew. Mae’s first-half yellow was followed by a booking for Machida Zelvia’s Takahiro Ko in the 74th minute as frustration began to build for the home team.

The victory immediately puts FC Tōkyō at the top of the early J1 League table, beginning their campaign with a perfect record of one win and zero losses. For Machida Zelvia, the loss compounds a difficult start to the 2025 season. The club entered the league opener on the heels of a 4-0 defeat to Blaublitz Akita in a different competition on July 10, 2025. Their overall record across all competitions now stands at zero wins and two losses, putting pressure on the team to find its form quickly.

FC Tōkyō, meanwhile, carries the momentum of a flawless start, also holding a record of one win and zero losses in all competitions. The team’s ability to secure a hard-fought victory on the road against a favored opponent signals a resilient start under the backdrop of a packed Japan National Stadium.

The fixture, one of the highlight matches of the league’s opening weekend, drew a significant crowd to the national stadium, underscoring the intense local rivalry between the two Tokyo-area clubs. While Machida Zelvia controlled large portions of the match, they were ultimately unable to break down a stubborn FC Tōkyō defense, which held firm to secure a clean sheet and three valuable points.