FREDRIKSTAD, Norway (Interstat) — Fredrikstad opened its Eliteserien campaign with a 2-0 road victory over rival Sarpsborg 08 on Saturday, defying pregame projections. The win came at Sarpsborg Stadion.

Substitutes fueled the victory, with Daniel Eid breaking a scoreless stalemate in the 53rd minute. Eid later assisted on an 87th-minute insurance goal from fellow substitute Leonard Owusu. The performance overturned statistical models that heavily favored the hosts.

Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw, and its ELO system gave Sarpsborg 08 a 57.8 percent probability to win. Fredrikstad begins its league season at 1-0-0, while Sarpsborg 08 starts 0-1-0.