Pachuca 2, Toluca 2

TOLUCA, Mexico (Interstat) — In a fiery Liga MX contest that defied pregame projections, Toluca and visiting Pachuca battled to a 2-2 draw Sunday at Estadio Nemesio Díez, a result that saw both teams earn their first point of the season after a match defined by second-half drama and a late red card. The final score stood in stark contrast to statistical models, which heavily favored the home side. Interstat’s ELO system had given Toluca an 89.30 percent probability of victory, while its game simulator projected a more conservative 1-1 finish, ultimately only half-correct in its goal tally for the… Read more...