LONDON (Interstat) — Aston Villa hosts Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, May 3, in a Premier League fixture with contrasting recent histories and conflicting projections.

Aston Villa, playing at Villa Park, enters on a sour note after a 3-2 defeat at Liverpool on Saturday. That loss extended a worrying run for the home side, which has dropped three of its last four league matches, including a 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest and a 1-0 defeat at Fulham. Villa’s only win in that stretch came in a wild 4-3 victory over Sunderland on April 19.

However, the head-to-head record strongly favors the hosts. Aston Villa has defeated Tottenham twice this season, both by 2-1 scores — most recently Jan. 10 in London, and previously Oct. 19. That form gives Villa a psychological edge, and Interstat’s ELO system projects the home side with a 58.10 percent probability of winning.

Tottenham arrives buoyed by a 1-0 win at Wolverhampton on April 25, a rare bright spot in an uneven season. The victory snapped a run of five matches without a win in all competitions. Spurs have struggled mightily on the road, with recent losses at Sunderland (1-0) and Brentford (3-1), and a 4-1 defeat at Arsenal on Feb. 22.

Injuries and inconsistent form have plagued Tottenham, who have conceded at least three goals in six of their last 12 matches. Their defense will be tested by Villa’s attack, which produced four goals against Sunderland but has otherwise been subdued.

Interstat’s game simulator predicts a 2-1 win for Tottenham, a projection at odds with the ELO probability and recent head-to-head results. The simulation suggests Spurs may finally break their losing streak against Villa.

For Aston Villa, a busy schedule looms. Following this match, Villa hosts Nottingham Forest on Thursday, then travels to Burnley on May 10 before facing Liverpool and Manchester City in late May. Tottenham, meanwhile, faces Roma in a friendly May 6, then resumes Premier League play against Leeds United on May 11.

Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. local time.