BIRMINGHAM, England (Interstat) — In a Premier League opener that defied pregame projections, Aston Villa and Leeds United played to a 1-1 draw Saturday at Villa Park.

The match, which saw both clubs begin their league campaigns with a share of the points, was a tale of two substitutes for Leeds and a late salvaging act by Villa’s star striker. The result stood in stark contrast to statistical forecasts, which heavily favored a home victory.

Leeds United, the visiting side, struck first against the run of play in the 31st minute. The goal came from an unlikely source, substitute Anton Stach, who had entered the match earlier. Stach finished a sequence assisted by fellow substitute Jayden Bogle, putting the away side in front and silencing much of the home crowd.

Aston Villa, projected by Interstat’s ELO system with a 90.6 percent probability to win, struggled to break down a resolute Leeds defense for much of the contest. The home side’s frustrations mounted in the second half, which became increasingly fractious. The officials issued five yellow cards in a 28-minute span, with Leeds’ Jaka Bijol and Karl Darlow and Villa’s Emiliano Buendía booked between the 62nd and 73rd minutes. Leeds’ Bogle joined them in the book in the 79th minute.

Just as it seemed Leeds would escape with a narrow victory, Villa found the crucial equalizer with only two minutes remaining in regulation. Forward Tammy Abraham, the focal point of Villa’s attack, delivered when it mattered most, scoring in the 88th minute to pull his team level. The goal was assisted by midfielder Emiliano Buendía, who provided a creative spark despite his earlier caution.

The dramatic late goal set up a tense stoppage time, which saw another yellow card shown to Leeds’ Ilia Gruev in the second added minute, but neither side could find a winner. The final whistle confirmed a single point for each side, a result that fell short of Interstat’s pregame simulation, which had projected a 2-1 victory for Aston Villa.

The draw leaves both teams with identical records to start the Premier League season: no wins, no losses and one draw. Their overall records across all competitions also mirror each other. The match highlighted the impact of squad depth, with Leeds’ substitutes combining for its goal and Villa relying on its established stars to avoid a home defeat.

For Leeds, the point earned on the road against a favored opponent will be viewed as a positive start. For Aston Villa, the late rally prevented a damaging loss but underscored the team’s need to convert its perceived superiority into more decisive results as the season progresses.