LONDON (Interstat) — Nottingham Forest opened its Premier League campaign with a surprising 2-1 victory over West Ham United on Tuesday, overcoming long odds and a late surge from the hosts at London Stadium.

The match, played before a crowd of 62,500 in Newham, Borough of London, saw the visiting Forest defy pregame projections. Statistical analysis firm Interstat had given West Ham a 68.10 percent probability to win and had simulated a final score of 1-1.

Instead, Forest’s substitutes made the decisive impact, building a two-goal lead that ultimately proved insurmountable. The victory immediately altered the early season standings, lifting Nottingham Forest to a record of 1 win and 0 losses in the league, while handing West Ham a first defeat, leaving them at 0 wins and 1 loss. The records across all competitions mirrored those marks.

The breakthrough came early. In the 13th minute, defender Murillo, who entered the match as a substitute, found the net to give Nottingham Forest a 1-0 advantage. The assist came from midfielder Jean-Clair Todibo, who was later shown a yellow card in the 61st minute.

Forest doubled its lead before the hour mark. Another substitute, Nicolás Domínguez, scored in the 55th minute to extend the margin to 2-0. The assist was credited to defender Kyle Walker-Peters.

West Ham, struggling to break down a resolute Forest defense, finally found a response through its own substitute. Morgan Gibbs-White scored in the 90th minute to cut the deficit to 2-1, providing a tense finale. The assist on the consolation goal was provided by defender Konstantinos Mavropanos.

The match grew increasingly fractious as West Ham pushed for an equalizer in stoppage time. Walker-Peters, the Forest defender, received a yellow card in the 90+4 minute. Mavropanos of West Ham was also booked in the 90+6 minute as time expired.

The final whistle secured a significant three points on the road for Nottingham Forest, which executed a effective game plan to neutralize West Ham’s expected threat. The performance of Forest’s bench, contributing both goals, was the defining feature of the match. For West Ham, the defeat at home marks a disappointing start to the Premier League season, failing to capitalize on its status as the pregame favorite.