VISELSEN, Netherlands (Interstat) — Substitute Isak Jensen scored a 78th-minute winner to give AZ a 1-0 victory over Telstar in an Eredivisie match Sunday at 711 Stadion.

The game, the season opener for both Dutch sides, was a defensive struggle until Jensen’s decisive intervention. He finished a play assisted by fellow substitutes Wouter Goes and Peer Koopmeiners, with defender Kay Tejan also credited with an assist on the sequence. All three players earning assists also received yellow cards during the match.

The result defied the pregame projection from Interstat, whose simulator had forecast a 2-1 AZ win. The firm’s ELO rating system gave AZ a 77.6% probability to win. With the victory, AZ begins its Eredivisie campaign with a win, while Telstar starts with a loss.