ROTTERDAM, Netherlands (Interstat) — In a season-opening Eredivisie match that defied pregame projections, Excelsior secured a 2-1 comeback victory over PEC Zwolle on Saturday at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.

The result was a stark contrast to statistical forecasts. Data firm Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw, while its ELO system gave the visiting PEC Zwolle a 71.10 percent probability to win. Instead, the home side opened its league campaign with a win, moving its Eredivisie record to 1 win, 0 losses. PEC Zwolle begins its season at 0 wins, 1 losses.

PEC Zwolle, the visiting side, seized the early initiative. In the 20th minute, midfielder Noah Naujoks found the net to give his team a 1-0 lead. Excelsior struggled to break down a disciplined Zwolle defense for the remainder of the first half, sending the teams into the break with the visitors ahead.

The momentum of the match shifted decisively after halftime, catalyzed by an Excelsior substitution. Introduced in the second half, Ryan Thomas made an immediate impact for the home side. Just three minutes after coming on, Thomas leveled the score in the 48th minute, converting a chance to make it 1-1.

Thomas continued to be the central figure, turning from scorer to provider 30 minutes later. In the 78th minute, his play set up teammate Irakli Yegoian, who scored what proved to be the decisive goal. The midfielder’s finish put Excelsior ahead 2-1, completing the turnaround.

The match’s intensity was reflected in a pair of second-half yellow cards. Thomas was cautioned in the 63rd minute for his involvement in a midfield challenge. Excelsior defender Arthur Zagre, who was credited with an assist on Thomas’s equalizing goal, received a yellow card in the 76th minute, just two minutes before Yegoian’s winner.

Excelsior managed the final stages effectively, seeing out several minutes of stoppage time to claim all three points. The victory gives the Rotterdam-based club a positive start as it looks to improve upon its recent league finishes. For PEC Zwolle, the defeat marks a disappointing beginning to the campaign, as the team failed to capitalize on its strong early position and favorable pregame predictions.

The match was the first for both clubs in the 2025-26 Eredivisie season.