DOHA, Qatar (Interstat) — In a shocking reversal of pregame projections, Saudi Arabia’s Al Ittihad SCSC dominated Qatar’s Al Sadd 4-1 in AFC Champions League play Tuesday at Jassim bin Hamad Stadium.

Interstat’s simulator had predicted a 2-2 draw, and its ELO system gave Al Sadd a 92.8% probability to win. Al Ittihad defied those odds with a first-half barrage. Substitute Houssem Aouar opened the scoring in the 10th minute, followed by fellow substitute Youssef En-Nesyri in the 18th. Al Sadd defender Pedro Miguel pulled one back in the 33rd, but Al Ittihad’s Rafa Mújica restored the two-goal margin five minutes later. Substitute Stephane Keller added a second-half goal to seal the comprehensive victory.

The result gives Al Ittihad a winning start in the continental competition, while Al Sadd begins with a defeat.