HAARLEM, Netherlands (Interstat) — Substitute Timo de Graaf scored an 87th-minute winner to lift Barendrecht to a 2-1 comeback victory over Koninklijke UD Deventer in a Tweede Divisie match on Saturday.

The result at Sportpark Koninklijke HFC mirrored both the pregame projection from Interstat’s game simulator and the teams’ prior meeting this season, extending Barendrecht’s recent dominance in the fixture.

Playing as the designated home side at a neutral venue in Haarlem, Koninklijke UD Deventer struck first. Forward Delano Ladan opened the scoring in the 20th minute, finishing an assist from midfielder Rabbi Mwenda to give his side an early advantage.

Barendrecht, which had defeated Deventer 2-0 in November, struggled to break through for much of the match. The visitors finally found an equalizer in the 65th minute through their own substitute, Joey Jongman, who converted a pass from Levi de Wilde to level the score at 1-1.

The match grew increasingly tense as it entered its final stages. De Wilde of Barendrecht received a yellow card in the 72nd minute, followed by Mwenda of Deventer in the 86th. Just a minute after that booking, Barendrecht completed its turnaround. Another substitute, Bram de Bruin, provided the decisive pass for De Graaf, who found the net to put Barendrecht ahead 2-1.

Barendrecht’s De Bruin was shown a yellow card in the third minute of second-half stoppage time, but his side held on through the final moments to secure all three points.

The victory improves Barendrecht’s record in the Dutch third-tier competition to 12 wins, 13 losses and four draws. Koninklijke UD Deventer’s record falls to 11 wins, 15 losses and four draws. The teams now sit level on points in the league table, though Barendrecht holds the advantage on goal difference.

Interstat’s pre-match analytics gave Barendrecht a 55 percent probability of winning, forecasting the exact 2-1 scoreline that materialized.

Barendrecht, which had lost two of its last three league matches, will look to build on the result when it hosts Spakenburg next Saturday in league play. Koninklijke UD Deventer, which saw a two-match winning streak snapped, will aim to rebound on the road against VV Rijnsburgse Boys, also next Saturday.