GATESHEAD, England (Interstat) — Gateshead opened its National League season with a 1-0 road victory over Aldershot Town on Saturday, defying pregame projections.

The lone goal came in the 11th minute from substitute Harry Chapman, assisted by Callum Stewart. The early strike held up at The EBB Stadium at The Recreation Ground as Gateshead’s defense secured the clean sheet.

The result was an upset. Statistical models heavily favored Aldershot, giving the home side a 69.1 percent probability to win and projecting a 1-1 draw.

The match grew increasingly fractious, featuring eight yellow cards. All five Gateshead substitutes and two Aldershot players were booked in a tense second half.

With the win, Gateshead begins its league campaign at 1-0, while Aldershot starts 0-1.