LONDON (Interstat) — In a stunning upset that defied statistical models and expectations, AEK Larnaca of Cyprus secured a 1-0 victory over England’s Crystal Palace in a UEFA Europa Conference League group stage match Thursday afternoon at a rain-swept Selhurst Park.

The match, the opening fixture of the group phase for both clubs, was decided by a second-half goal from Bosnian forward Rijad Bajić, handing the visiting Cypriot side a monumental away win against their Premier League opposition.

The result was a profound shock, not only to the home supporters but according to pre-game analytics. The Interstat game simulator had projected a 1-0 win for Crystal Palace, while the same organization’s ELO rating system gave AEK Larnaca a mere 5.8 percent chance of victory, implying a 94.2 percent probability that the home side would win or draw.

Instead, it was AEK Larnaca who executed a disciplined defensive game plan and capitalized on a critical chance. The decisive moment arrived in the 51st minute. Following a period of sustained but ultimately fruitless pressure from the hosts, AEK Larnaca mounted a swift counter-attack. The move culminated with Bajić finding space inside the penalty area and driving a low, precise shot past Crystal Palace goalkeeper Dean Henderson to send the small but vocal contingent of traveling fans into delirium.

Crystal Palace, playing in front of their home crowd, dominated possession for large stretches of the game but were consistently frustrated by a resolute and organized AEK Larnaca defense. The Premier League side struggled to create clear-cut opportunities, with their attacking moves often breaking down in the final third.

The home team’s frustrations began to show even before they fell behind. AEK Larnaca’s midfielder Pere Pons was shown a yellow card in the 43rd minute for a tactical foul to halt a budding Palace attack.

As the clock wound down and desperation set in, Crystal Palace’s discipline eroded. Striker Jean-Philippe Mateta received a yellow card in the 86th minute for a reckless challenge. The tension boiled over just two minutes later when fellow forward Eddie Nketiah was also booked. The flurry of cautions concluded in the 90th minute with a yellow card shown to AEK Larnaca’s Marcus Rohdén as the visitors managed the game’s final moments.

Despite throwing players forward in a frantic search for an equalizer, Crystal Palace could not find a way through. The final whistle confirmed a famous European afternoon for AEK Larnaca and a bitterly disappointing start to their continental campaign for the Eagles.

The victory marks a perfect start for AEK Larnaca in the Europa Conference League, giving them a crucial three points on the road in a group where they were widely considered the underdogs. For Crystal Palace, the loss puts immediate pressure on their European aspirations, as dropping points at home against the perceived weakest team in the group is a significant setback.

Both teams now have a season record of zero wins and zero losses across all competitions, as this match served as the competitive opener for each club in the 2025-26 campaign. The focus for Crystal Palace will be on a swift response in their next domestic and European fixtures, while AEK Larnaca will return to Cyprus buoyed by one of the most impressive results in the club’s recent history.