LONDON (Interstat) — Substitute Jayden Wareham’s first-half strike was the difference as Exeter City opened its League One campaign with a 1-0 road victory over AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium on Monday.

The result, coming against the statistical odds, handed the visiting Grecians a winning start to the English third-tier season while leaving the home Dons to rue missed opportunities in front of a disappointed crowd in Merton.

Exeter’s decisive moment arrived in the 37th minute, breaking a stalemate that had seen the home side enjoy the better of the early proceedings. The goal was a product of effective substitutions and direct play. Goalkeeper Nathan Bishop initiated the move with a long, targeted kick downfield. The ball was flicked on by fellow substitute Jack Aitchison into the path of another player introduced from the bench, Joseph Whitworth, who drove forward before sliding a pass to the edge of the penalty area.

Wareham, who had also entered the fray as a substitute, met the pass with a crisp, first-time finish that left the Wimbledon goalkeeper with no chance. The assist was credited to Whitworth, with Aitchison and Bishop also playing key roles in the buildup.

The goal deflated an AFC Wimbledon side that had entered the match as a significant favorite. According to pre-match analytics from Interstat, Wimbledon held a 66.70 percent probability to win, and the organization’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw. Instead, Exeter’s organized defense and clinical counter proved decisive.

The second half grew increasingly fractious as Wimbledon pressed for an equalizer and Exeter fought to preserve its slender lead. The tension boiled over into a flurry of yellow cards deep into stoppage time, with six cautions issued between the 90+1 and 90+11 minute marks. Exeter’s Whitworth, Aitchison, and goalkeeper Nathan Bishop were all booked, as were Wimbledon’s Steve Seddon and Myles Hippolyte. Exeter’s Jack McMillan and Jake Doyle-Hayes had received earlier cautions in the 62nd and 68th minutes, respectively.

Despite sustained pressure and possession in the final third, AFC Wimbledon could not find a way past a resolute Exeter back line, which secured a clean sheet for Bishop. The defeat marks a frustrating start for the Dons, who were unable to translate their favored status into points.

With the victory, Exeter City begins its League One season with one win and no losses, a perfect start across all competitions this season. AFC Wimbledon, conversely, starts with one loss and no wins in both League One and its overall campaign. The match underscored the impact of squad depth, with Exeter’s substitutes combining directly for the game’s only goal and altering its trajectory.