MORELIA, Mexico (Interstat) — In a chaotic and dramatic finish that defied pregame projections, Leones Negros edged Morelia 3-2 on Sunday in a Liga de Expansión MX match at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón.

The visitors secured the victory with a stoppage-time goal, capping a match that saw a flurry of late activity including a red card and multiple cautions.

The game’s opening goal came from an unexpected source. Denilson Muñoz, who began the match on the bench, put Leones Negros ahead in the 16th minute. The lead was short-lived, as Morelia’s defender Brayton Vázquez found the net to equalize in the 31st minute.

The 1-1 deadlock held for the remainder of regular time, setting the stage for a frantic extra-time period. The decisive blow was struck deep into added time when Leones Negros’ Arturo Ledesma, another substitute, scored in the fourth minute of stoppage time to secure the 3-2 result for the visitors.

The final minutes were marred by ill discipline. A yellow card was issued to Leones Negros’ Denilson Muñoz in the ninth minute of stoppage time, followed by a caution for Morelia’s Josué Martínez in the 10th minute. The match culminated with a red card shown to Morelia’s Brian Figueroa in the 11th minute of added time.

Other key contributors in the match included Raúl Camacho, who came off the bench to record a goal and an assist for Leones Negros. Alejandro Bravo and Walter Ortega were also instrumental, each registering assists in the contest.

The result was an upset according to pregame analytics. Interstat’s ELO system had projected Morelia with a 63.6 percent probability to win. Furthermore, the organization’s game simulator had forecast a final score of Leones Negros 2, Morelia 1, underestimating the total offensive output in the contest.

With the victory, Leones Negros begins its season campaign in the Liga de Expansión MX. Morelia starts its season with a loss. Both teams’ records across all competitions also reflect this single result.