BRISTOL, England (Interstat) — Tommy Leigh’s 79th-minute goal gave Bristol Rovers a 1-0 victory over Shrewsbury Town in a League Two match at Memorial Stadium on Tuesday.

The decisive play was set up by defender Riley Harbottle, who recorded an assist before Leigh finished. The result defied a pregame projection from Interstat, whose simulator had forecast a 1-1 draw. Its ELO system gave Bristol Rovers a 58% probability to win.

The win gives Bristol Rovers a perfect start to their League Two campaign, while Shrewsbury Town begins with a defeat. Harbottle and Shrewsbury’s Tommy McDermott received yellow cards during the match.